With the first rain of the season hitting the Central Coast over the weekend, authorities nevertheless saw little chance for giant downpours to fill area reservoirs in 2008-09.
Most, like AccuWeather meteorologist Ken Clark, took a wait-and-see attitude.
“What happens now doesn't necessarily correlate to what's going to happen in the future,” he said.
His ambivalence is due to the fact that there are currently no large-scale El Niņo or La Niņa weather patterns over the tropical Pacific.
El Niņos frequently bring heavier rains to Southern California, while La Niņas often mean a drier year. The neutral pattern may edge toward La Niņa in 2009, he said.
“For now we're expected to be below normal,” he added.
Normal rainfall in Santa Maria is 14.01 inches annually. For the 2007-08 rainfall year, the city measured 11.58 inches, though much of that fell early in the season.
Only .23 of an inch fell in the seven months from March 1 through Thursday.
That came off an exceptionally dry year in 2006-07 when Santa Maria got only 5.11 inches of rain.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is also “not leaning any particular way,” said Bonnie Bartling, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Office in Oxnard. “They just say there's an equal chance” of Southern California's getting above or below normal precipitation.
In its seasonal drought outlook issued last month, the CPC predicted “little change” in drought conditions over Southern California through early winter.
This weekend's predicted storm, coming off the Pacific Ocean, arrived right on schedule.
“We always think of October through April as the rainy season,” Bartling said.
Over the weekend, light ran fell over San Luis Obispo and northern Santa Barbara counties due to the tail end of a quick-moving front that brought larger rainfall amounts to Northern California.
On the Central Coast, rainfall totals ranged from .08 of an inch for Santa Maria and .11 in Lompoc. While most totals were light, Port San Luis received the highest amount at one-third of an inch, the National Weather Service said.
As for the rest of the season, Bartling, like the tropical Pacific, was neutral. “We'll have to see what this year brings,” she said.
And what does that legendary prognosticator, the Farmers' Almanac, say the winter holds for Southern California?
Generally it sides with the professionals. After a “wet start,” the magazine predicts “average precipitation overall.”
Janene Scully contributed to this article.
October 6, 2008
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