Fire danger expected

By Sally Cappon/Times contributor

After a couple of cold but not record-setting mornings, the Central Coast weather could get really interesting for the remainder of the week.

Consider the forecast: a high-surf advisory about the largest swells this year, a red flag warning of high-risk fire conditions, and the biggest rainstorm of the season - all by Friday.

“Certainly, it's not going to be dull,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Jamie Meier.

The high surf advisory, calling for breakers from 15 to 20 feet with monster sets as high as 26 feet, has been issued by the Weather Service for today and Wednesday on Santa Barbara County's Central Coast. Surf is expected to peak this afternoon through Wednesday morning with the advisory due to expire at 10 a.m. Thursday.

A combination of high surf and astronomical high tides will likely cause local beach erosion, according to the Weather Service. There may be beach flooding at the times of morning high tides Wednesday and Thursday, and some state beach parks may be closed.

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For example, the heights and times of high tides at Port San Luis are 5.4 feet at 6:45 a.m. Wednesday and 5.6 feet at 7:12 a.m. Thursday.

The swell is being caused by a large winter storm off the coast of Washington and Oregon, said Meier. “It's taking its time coming down the coast. It'll certainly be dangerous to mess with.''

The surf could be bigger than anything seen all last winter, forecasters say.

With wave periods between 17 and 19 seconds, “this can cause lulls between the largest sets of waves, and park visitors may be fooled into thinking the water line is safer than it is due to these lulls,'' said Alex Peabody, aquatic safety specialist with the State Parks Public Safety Division.

Also affecting the conditions is the direct angle from the storm, he said.

“Swimming, wading and water sports should be avoided at the height of this swell. Popular surfing areas may see extreme conditions to the point where even experts will be at risk entering the water.''

Some state parks and beaches may be closed to the public because of dangerous conditions, he said.

In contrast to all the water at the coast, there will be a red flag warning today for mountains in the county because of a combination of high temperatures, low humidity and sundowner winds gusting to 50 mph through Santa Ynez mountain passes.

The storm off the northwest coast is expected to arrive here Thursday, when there is a 20 percent chance of rain. Rain is likely Thursday night and Friday with a chance of rain through the weekend.

“As of now, it will be the biggest storm of the year,'' said Meier. “We still have four days. We're not putting out precipitation estimates yet. It will be highly impacted by the exact track the storm will take.

“There is the potential for significant rainfall, which could impact the areas affected by the Zaca Fire,'' she said.

As for last weekend's cold temperatures, in case anyone has forgotten already, the mercury dipped to 33 degrees Saturday, well above the record low for the date of 28 degrees set in 1978. Sunday and Monday lows were 36 degrees. After today's spike in temperatures, highs are likely to once again fall into the upper 50s Friday and Saturday.

Sally Cappon can be reached at sjcappon@aol.com.

December 4, 2007