Marian Medical Center, like other area hospitals, could be quickly overwhelmed by scores of people experiencing flu-like symptoms. Santa Barbara County officials would be pressed to decide whether medical triage sites should be set up at the Santa Maria Fairpark, Santa Barbara's Earl Warren Showgrounds, UCSB and other locations.

As the number of sick and dying from a new strain of avian flu skyrocketed, tough calls would also have to be made about which people were most vulnerable and should get medicines and other supplies that are too scarce to make available to everyone.

Welcome to experts' best guess of what things will be like locally if a worldwide pandemic of “bird flu” or some other new strain of deadly virus arrived here.

With health officials generally agreeing it's a question of when, not if, such a pandemic will eventually occur, Santa Barbara County health and emergency-operations agencies staged a three-hour drill Wednesday to test their readiness to respond to such a widespread medical crisis.

Because it takes about six months to develop a vaccine once a new flu strain emerges, immunizations weren't an option during the drill staged inside a county complex at Calle Real and Camino del Remedio in the eastern Goleta Valley.

Officials are presuming that a flu pandemic could sicken one-fourth of the population and kill thousands of people in this county alone. So, the primary goal Wednesday was to figure out how to limit the disease's spread while also keeping basic goods and services flowing.

Dubbed “Operation Kung Flu,” the drill involved dozens of personnel from the Sheriff's Department and several other county agencies. At a press conference immediately afterwards, Assistant County Executive Officer Ron Cortez declared the drill a resounding success.

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“We believe the practice exercise today was most successful,” Cortez said. “It showed our strengths while also uncovering some areas that need improving upon, but we consider this exercise to be a big success.”

During the drill, County Executive Officer Michael Brown - clad in a bright yellow vest signifying he was part of the Emergency Operations Center team - confided there seemed to be too few phones, and too little time for personnel to document what went on. Nonetheless, “this county is about as ready as we can be,” he said, “if this avian flu did become a pandemic.”

While stressing that no pandemic exists, health experts warned that a poultry-related “bird flu” - which has caused at least 168 deaths, mostly in Southeast Asia, Indonesia and China - has the potential to become pandemic if it evolves into a strain easily spread among human beings. No cases have yet been reported in the United States.

Santa Barbara County, Cortez noted, was the first county in California to complete a pandemic preparedness plan, last March. The 54-page document entitled “Pandemic Influenza Strategy Plan” can be viewed online at www.SBCFluinfo.org.

Information about how individuals and families can prepare for the possibility of a flu pandemic is also available, in both English and Spanish, by calling a toll-free hotline at

1-888-722-6358.

After Wednesday's drill, Public Health Officer Dr. Elliot Schulman stressed the need for individuals and families to be ready to stay home and provide for their own basic needs, for up to three weeks, if a flu pandemic occurs. That means stocking up on packaged food, water and any over-the-counter or prescription medications family members may need during that time.

“What we saw today is that, very rapidly, our hospitals and medical care system gets overwhelmed, and we have to set up alternate triage sites,” Schulman explained. “It's important for people to be ready to remain at home and have the supplies they need to sustain ordinary activities.”

Such “social isolation” also becomes necessary to lessen the spread of a new and deadly virus, he said. And, with perhaps 25 percent of the population too sick to work, there will likely be disruptions in the normal flow of goods and services, making people's ability to sustain themselves critical, he added.

For officials in charge during such a crisis, there also “comes a time when you have to make decisions about whether to target (assistance to) groups of people who are most at risk,” he said.

Chuck Schultz can be reached at 925-2691, Ext. 2241, or cschultz@santamariatimes.com.

June 21, 2007