Latinos born in the United States are the key to the economic future of California and, specifically, Santa Maria, because they are not only the consumers but also the business owners of the future.

That was the message David Hayes-Bautista delivered Friday at Allan Hancock College as part of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project's presentation of the North Santa Barbara County Economic Outlook 2007.

Hayes-Bautista, who holds a doctorate in medical sociology, is director of the Center for Study of Latino Health and Culture at UCLA.

His presentation offered an eye-opening look at the shifting Latino demographics in Santa Barbara County and the state, as well as how the history of Mexican immigrants is woven into the fabric of American society - all the way back to the Revolutionary War.

In a comparison Hayes-Bautista called “a tale of two cities,” he noted the Latino population in Santa Maria from 2000 to 2004 rose 25 percent, while in Santa Barbara it shrank 2 percent.

Over the past five years, he said, the number of Latino-owned businesses in Santa Maria increased 251 percent, but in the city of Santa Barbara fell 40 percent.

“The city of Santa Barbara considers itself the keeper of (Latino) tradition,” Hayes-Bautista said. “Looking back, did they miss something?”

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Countywide, the number of Latino-owned businesses fell 3 percent, compared to increases of 4 percent in San Luis Obispo County, 35 percent in Los Angeles County, 48 percent in Ventura County, 157 percent in Stanislaus County and 181 percent in Kern County.

Statewide, the number of Latino-owned businesses rose 27 percent.

Hayes-Bautista said anyone concerned about generating more jobs, more payroll, more retail sales and more tax revenue should take advantage of the opportunities those changes offer.

“Santa Barbara has some deep structural problems, and the wave may have passed them by,” he said. “But it doesn't have to pass Santa Maria by.”

Hayes-Bautista said much attention has been focused on immigration as the source of the rising Latino population. But although most middle-aged and older Latinos are immigrants, most of the younger Latinos were born here.

For example, in Los Angeles County, 92 percent of Latinos age 10 and younger were born in the United States. By 2030, about 90 percent of Latinos 34 and younger will be U.S.-born.

Those Latinos will be better-educated and twice as likely as their parents to graduate high school and college, he said. They will be young parents buying cars and houses and myriad retail goods.

Although the number of Latino-owned businesses catering to Latinos is exploding, businesses not owned by Latinos can draw those consumers by finding out what they want and offering those goods and services through targeted advertising.

“Listen to the consumer,” he said. “What does Mrs. Gomez want?”

He noted the quinceañera - a girl's 15th birthday - is cause for major celebration in Mexico. So Disneyland is now offering quinceañera packages that are drawing a big Latino response, he said.

Technology businesses have already recognized the growing market. MySpace.com now has sites in Spanish, and iTunes has introduced a Latino section.

Hayes-Bautista said whether English or Spanish is used in advertising won't matter as much as the content.

With 85 percent of Latinos ages 5 to 18 already bilingual, the next wave of consumers will respond to the goods and services being offered, regardless of the language used.

He also noted investment capital is flowing in from Mexico, and the rise in Latino-owned businesses is an opportunity for non-Latinos to invest.

“When people think of Latino-owned businesses, most think of the small businesses along Main Street ... the mom-and-pops,” he said.

But the number of high-end businesses owned by Latinos is growing. He cited 30 Latino-owned wineries in the state as well the growth of such chains as La Curacao, Don Roberto Jewelers, Goya Foods, Señor Snack and El Super.

In short, he said, investing in Latino-owned businesses and understanding the Latino consumer can lead to a prosperous 21st century for California.

Mike Hodgson can be reached at 739-2221 or mhodgson@santa

mariatimes.com.

May 12, 2007