In addition to the certainty of death and taxes, Californians also have to shoulder a few extra burdens, such as earthquakes, jammed freeways, wildfires and mudslides.

And you'd be wise not to overlook another sure thing - drought.

Most western states are now five years into the latest drought cycle. Annual rainfall has been less than normal, as have winter snow amounts, which reduces the subsequent flow into lowland lakes and streams every spring.

An afternoon drive along scenic Highway 154 here in Santa Barbara County pretty much reveals the truth. Lake Cachuma has been drying up at a steady pace for the past few years. The disappearing lake leaves tell-tale rings on surrounding cliffs.

The problem is even worse as you travel east. Lake Powell, which is the chief reservoir for the Lower Colorado River states of Nevada, Arizona and California, is at 42 percent of normal capacity. Experts say if significant rain doesn't come in the next 2-3 years, the lake behind the dam could be all but completely drained.

That would create a huge problem for the up-river states, including the state for which the mighty river is named. If Powell runs dry, the up-river states will have to release more water to satisfy the terms of an eight-decade-old agreement for sharing Colorado River water. Nevada, Arizona and California are entitled to a certain amount of water, no matter what the cost to up-river states.

The Colorado River and its problems may seem distant to us here on the Central Coast, but any prolonged drought will have a profound effect on the economies and quality of life in all western states. And it involves more than the expense of installing low-flow toilets or having to go weeks between car washes. Central Coast residents have tens of millions of dollars invested in yards, trees and landscaping that would be at risk in a long, full-blown drought.

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All of which vastly increases the importance of desalination, an option that every coastal community in California should be considering.

Desalination is not a new concept. The military and oil companies have been using it for years. Portions of the arid Middle East have been transformed into lush farmland through the use of desalted sea water.

There are 10 desalination plants either in operation or permitted and built in California. Locally, the Chevron Gaviota oil processing facility and offshore oil rigs use desalted sea water, as does PG&E's Diablo Canyon nuclear power facility near Avila Beach. The cities of Cambria, San Diego and Ventura are seeking permits to build desalination plants. Santa Barbara voters approved a desal plant in the early 1990s, but the facility was soon decommissioned.

The major disadvantage of desalted water is its cost, estimated at up to $2,000 per acre-foot. An acre-foot is 326,000 gallons, or enough to supply three to five families for a year. But those costs are balanced against often ridiculously low water costs from years past. When there is no other water available, $2,000 an acre/foot may not seem so outrageous.

There is no cost concern in Florida's Tampa Bay area, which has the largest desal plant in the Western Hemisphere, producing 25 million gallons of potable water a day. The decision to build the plant was based on 3 million or so Floridians being tired of facing water shortages every few years - similar to the cyclical nature of drought in California.

Desalination is an option that should be explored by every coastal region, if for no other reason than to have a backup water supply when Mother Nature won't cooperate. At least that way, one of the death, taxes, earthquake, traffic-jam, wildfire, mudslide, drought factors could be removed from the list of sure things.

April 29, 2004